The Russian leader already has troops ready to launch a lightning takeover of eastern Europe in a move which would unleash a devastating global conflict on Europe’s doorstep.



And if NATO nations fail to respond to the threat with stronger resolve a future conflict could have “fatal consequences” for the decades-old alliance.

The chilling warning from NATO’s former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Sir Richard Shirreff, comes amid icy tensions between Moscow and the West.

Russia has become increasingly militaristic over the last 18 months, embroiling itself in conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, as Mr Putin vies to deflect attention away from the struggling economy.

And despite Western sanctions over its annexation of the Crimean peninsula the country retains a formidable fighting force, as demonstrated by its obliteration of Islamic State (ISIS) positions in the Middle East.



General Shirreff warned: “It is clear that Russia is capable of surprising the West…with potentially devastating implications for eastern Poland and fatal consequences to the Alliance.”

The experienced military commander made his dire prediction in a briefing document, entitled Arming for Deterrence, for the respected Atlantic Council think-tank.

In it he argues that Mr Putin could easily “artificially generate any pretext that suits his propaganda narrative” to justify going to war with the West at a moment’s notice.

When he invaded eastern Ukraine in March 2014 the hardline leader claimed he was intervening to protect a repressed Russian speaking minority in the Donbass region.

But Moscow could equally look to invade neighbour Poland, which unlike Ukraine is a NATO member, by arguing it is “pre-empting a NATO military attack” or “defending access to Kaliningrad”, according to General Shirreff.

He wrote: “Even if Moscow currently has no immediate intent to challenge NATO directly, this may unexpectedly change overnight and can be implemented with great speed, following already prepared plans. The capability to do so is, to a large extent, in place.

“The biggest threat for NATO today is a miscalculation by Russia that it could outmanoeuvre the Alliance by creating a quick fait accompli inside NATO’s borders.

“This is based on the Russian assumption that it has a significant time advantage over NATO and that the allies could, through intimidation, uncertainty, and disinformation be influenced not to escalate a limited conflict into a full-fledged one.”

He adds there is also a danger that Western leaders might “misunderstand Russia, assuming that it will obey the rules even if we are not willing to enforce them”.

His report paints a terrifying picture of how Russia could declare war on the alliance “overnight” in a move which would render NATO helpless.

General Sherriff calculates that Moscow’s troops could surge into Poland and scythe through the merged defences of the Baltic states including Lithuania and Latvia, cutting them off from the rest of the alliance.

Last month Britain sent 200 troops to Poland to train and bolster forces in a country which is becoming increasingly nervous about Russian aggression in the region.

Mr Putin will have been emboldened by remarks made by US Presidential candidate Donald Trump that, in future, America may not automatically come to the defence of a NATO ally if it is invaded - one of the core principles of the alliance.

Russia has already embarked on a number of high-profile military drills, with mass mock mobilisations taking place all along its border with eastern Europe.

There is a strong suspicion that this could be cover for true conflict troop movements which would allow Moscow’s forces to go to war at speed which NATO cannot match.

General Sherriff observes: "Turning one of these exercises into an operation against one or several of the Baltic states would give very little or no early warning time for NATO.

“Russia’s forces in the Western Military District can be quickly and substantially reinforced by units and formations from other parts of Russia under the cover of planned or snap military drills.”

He says that the only way to deter Mr Putin from plunging eastern Europe into a massive conflict is to significantly bolster troops numbers in Poland - which would require huge deployments of men from the US and Britain.

His report asserts: “There is an urgent need to strengthen Poland’s defence capacity in order to reduce the temptation for Russia to spring a surprise attack.”

And it adds: "NATO members are not spending enough on defence to rebuild the range of capabilities necessary to deter a resurgent and aggressive Russia."

Canadian spies believe that Russia is openly preparing for war with the West, with many believing Mr Putin has used his intervention in Syria as a test of the capability of his forces, and to sharpen their instincts on the battlefield.

Tensions between Moscow and members of the US-led coalition, most of whom also part of NATO, have intensified in the skies over the Middle East, with Russian jets this week bombing an airbase used by British and US special forces.



Russian navy ships have also twice clashed with US vessels and their fighter planes have been observed carrying out blatant simulated attack runs on the Pentagon’s warships.

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