Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: Sebuah hasil survei palsu alias abal-abal yang mengatasnamakan Gallup Indonesia Poll muncul di situs jurnalisme warga milik CNN. Survei itu memenangkan Prabowo Subianto dan Hatta Rajasa dengan perolehan 52%, mengalahkan Joko Widodo dan Jusuf Kalla di angka 41%.

Saat Metrotvnews.com mencoba menelusuri artikel tersebut di situs iReport yang masih berada dalam domain CNN.com, Rabu (25/6/2014) pukul 00.35 WIB, yang muncul hanya pesan “This iReport has been removed because it was flagged by the community and found to be in violation of the iReport Community Guidelines and Terms of Use.”

Hasil pencarian Google merekam artikel tersebut sempat dimuat di situs [url=http://www.pkspiyungan.org.]www.pkspiyungan.org.[/url] Saat diklik, ternyata artikel tersebut juga sudah dihapus.

Ironisnya, hasil survei bodong ini sempat diberitakan sebuah televisi berita nasional.

Meski sudah dihapus, namun tembolok Google masih menyimpan arsip artikel tersebut. Saat dibuka, artikel utuh dari blog itu masih bisa dibaca. Penulisnya menggunakan nama “Beritabisnis”. Sekadar informasi, iReport merupakan situs jurnalisme warga yang terbuka bagi siapapun untuk mengisinya.

Survei abal-abal itu mengklaim metodologi yang digunakan adalah wawancara terhadap 1.220 orang dewasa usia 18 ke atas. Survei palsu digelar pada 10-21 Juni 2014. Adapun margin of error tercatat plus minus 4%. Hasil lainnya, Prabowo kalahkan Joko Widodo di antara pemilih terdaftar di Sumatera, Jawa, Kalimantan, Lombok, Bali, NTT, Papua, dan Maluku.

Sayangnya kepalsuan dari survei itu masih meninggalkan jejak. Pada paragraf kedua, ada nama Obama di sana.

“What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Prabowo is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Prabowo coalitions party in believing Obama is likely to win.”

Artikel survei palsu ini menjadi percakapan di sosial media pada Selasa 24 Juni malam. Artikel tersebut diyakini sebenarnya hasil survei mengenai elektabilitas Barack Obama saat melawan John McCain tahun 2008 silam dengan judul “Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President”, dan masih dimuat di situs resmi Gallup.

Berikut kutipan artikel survei palsu yang sempat muncul di iReport CNN:

“Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo are now about tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, nevertheless, in a June 10-21 Gallup Indonesia Poll, Prabowo leads Joko Widodo 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in 9 July.

Prabowo coalitions party are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in June -- 76% say Habiburokman will win -- than Joko Widodo Coalitions Party are about Joko Widodo chances (67%). What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Prabowo is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Prabowo coalitions party in believing Obama is likely to win.

Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking of the presidential election over the same period as the June 10-21 Gallup Poll shows Prabowo beating Joko Widodo among registered voters in the Sumatera ,Java,,Kalimantan ,Lombok ,Bali ,NTT ,Papua and Mollucas Region t, while he roughly ties Joko Widodo in Sumatera Region and trails Joko Widodo by a substantial margin in the Java . Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Prabowo is the more likely of the two to win.

Similarly, perceptions of Prabowo's electability by age don't exactly line up with his presidential support patterns across the same groups. Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking spanning June 10-22 shows adults aged 18 to 34 to be his strongest support group, giving him a 24-point lead over Joko Widodo, compared with a virtual tie between Prabowo and Joko Widodo among those aged 35 to 54 and a six-point lead for Joko Widodo among those 55 and older.

While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Prabowo and Joko Widodo as the likely winner: 48% predict an Prabowo win vs. 45% for Joko Widodo By contrast, the majority of Indonesian 55 and older say Prabowo will win.

Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking shows women backing Prabowo over Joko Widodo , 50% to 38%, while men prefer Joko Widodo to OPrabowo , 48% to 42%. Nevertheless, both genders are more likely to believe Prabowo rather than Joko Widodo will win the election.

Bottom Line

They say perception becomes reality. At this early stage of the general election campaign, perceptions of who can win are working in Prabowo,s favor, even among older generations of Indonesians who are more likely to back Joko Widodo for the presidency.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1220 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 10-21, 2014 . For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking results on the Prabowo- Joko Widodo race are based on telephone interviews with 2,536 registered voters interviewed June 10-15 and June 21, 2014.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

(Jri)

























silahkan di counter dengan DATA apabila merasa ini adalah rekayasa dari kubu pendukung Jokowi