Former special forces general Prabowo Subianto is closing in on presidential frontrunner Joko Widodo as his fiery, jingoistic speeches and tightly run electoral machine have exploited weaknesses in the popular Jakarta governor’s campaign.

Mr Widodo’s poll lead in this two-horse race – which was as high as 30 percentage points before April’s legislative elections – has fallen to the low single-digits in some surveys, with less than a fortnight until voters in the world’s third-biggest democracy select a replacement for outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on July 9.

Although he has been plagued by allegations about human rights abuses and his combustible temper, Mr Subianto has promoted his strongman reputation as his selling point in speeches at military-style parades where he rails against unidentified enemies of the state.

“You who are insulting the nation of Indonesia, who have bought the Indonesian nation and want to install a puppet leader, you who want us to remain poor,” he said at a rally attended by tens of thousands in Jakarta on Sunday. “Indonesia wants to stand up for itself this time.”

His rhetoric has helped him win support from voters who are frustrated with the indecisive leadership of President Yudhoyono’s second term and uninspired by Mr Widodo’s disjointed, volunteer-led campaign and his poor public-speaking skills.

This unexpected turn in the race to lead southeast Asia’s biggest economy is worrying some foreign investors, who long expected an easy victory for Mr Widodo and are unnerved by Mr Subianto’s nationalistic tone and his links to the regime of former dictator Suharto, to whose daughter he was married.

A recent survey of 70 investors by Deutsche Bank found that 68 per cent would buy Indonesian stocks if Mr Widodo wins, while 43 per cent would sell if Mr Subianto wins.

Fund manager jitters and the allegations that Mr Subianto overstepped the mark as a special forces commander – claims that he denies – are of little concern to voters such as Leny Haryani, a 42-year-old kindergarten teacher from Depok, just outside Jakarta.

“He is clever and he has the capacity to lead this nation,” she says as she lines up with hundreds of others to declare support for Mr Subianto at his Jakarta campaign headquarters. “As he was a soldier, I know he will be firm but I believe he does things the right way.”

Ujang Darmansa, one of several traders who have set up stalls outside the headquarters selling Subianto-related badges, stickers and T-shirts, says that Indonesia needs a strong leader to unite a vast and diverse country “made up of many traditions, tribes and religions”.

Philips Vermonte, a political analyst at Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says that the projection of Mr Subianto as “someone with the guts and discipline to be leader” has helped marshal his support.
But he argues that Mr Subianto has also been boosted by backing from influential media tycoons and the broad coalition of political parties supporting him, which holds 52 per cent of the seats in the new House of Representatives, as opposed to the 37 per cent held by those backing Mr Widodo.

Moreover, while Mr Widodo burst on to the national political scene in 2012 and has only been working on his presidential campaign since he was confirmed as a candidate in March, Mr Subianto has been plotting his path to the presidency since 2004, backed by his tycoon brother Hashim Djojohadikusumo.

Fadli Zon, the vice-chairman of Mr Subianto’s Gerindra party, says that while political organisation has helped the former general’s political campaign, his leadership credentials are the key to his fightback.

“For a long time there was no real publicity for our vision and mission but now people can see the real Prabowo and they want firm and honest leadership,” he says.

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