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OPTION Trading - Sharing -Artikel- tips- Info ( sementara )
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OPTION Trading - Sharing -Artikel- tips- Info ( sementara )

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walah kayanya dikau saja nih yang untung emoticon-Malu
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thx bro buat dukungannya ...

sangat berarti buat saya
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untung? ngga lah yau.. udah ngga main gaping..ngeri...
Another good week for the bears. Oil price hit $142!!

The bulls were absolutely disappointed as the bears took complete control this week. INDU lost 4.2%. COMPQ lost 3.8%. SPX lost 3.0% and RUT lost 3.8%.

INDU fell to its worst level since Sep 2006. SPX lost the 1300 mark.

The story of this week was Fed meeting. As expected the Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged at 2.00%. Its wording largely reiterated more hawkish comments leading up to the meeting from Uncle Ben and the other Fed officials. The FOMC Policy Statement stated that the Fed felt that overall economic activity continues to expand, partially due to "firming" in household spending. However, the Fed expects economic growth will face the burdens of tight credit conditions, housing contraction and the rise in energy prices.

The Fed then said uncertainty over the inflation outlook remains high, although it expects inflation to "moderate later this year and next year." Interestingly, the Fed felt that downside economic risks had somewhat diminished, while inflation risks had increased.

So, what does this means? Do you expect an interest rate hike in the next meeting? I am not sure. One thing I am sure is that people will be disappointed to see anything below 2%. This means that the interest rate of 2% is bottomed. The issue now is how to control the inflation. Will the Fed increase interest rate to control inflation? We shall see. There is of course a possibility for Fed to do so but at the same time, I am sure the Fed will monitor the economic data in the upcoming weeks to find the reasons to do what it thinks best for the Americans.

As what the Fed has done is expected, the market did nothing after that. One thing I found to be interesting was that the Fed announced the interest rate decision around 2:09pm EST and not 2.15pm EST. Did it indicate something?

The financial sector took a hit this week and fell 6.6%. WB downgraded GS to market perform from outperform. Credit Suisse cuts its earning estimate on MER and JPM. Then GS added C to its conviction sell list and forecast a Q2 write-down of $8.9b. LEH
said MER will likely incur a Q2 write-down of $5.4b. People may think "Gee .. have these financial institutions not done yet?" This can be the reason why the market participants were reluctant to place their bets. The market condition continued to be gloomy.

The consumer discretionary sector tumbled 4.6%. Poor GM fell 16% after GS cuts its earnings estimates and said GM may be forced to raise capital. Industrials dropped 6.1%. BA fell 12% after it was added to GS' conviction sell list.

RIMM and ORCL were also beaten hard this week. RIMM dropped 16% after it missed its earning by $0.01 with an overly-cautious outlook in the next quarter. ORCL fell 3.7% after the investors were disappointed by its outlook.

The only winner this week is the energy sector. It rose by 1.4%. Thanks to the oil because it closed at 140.62 on Friday and hit a record high of $142. People are still arguing whether this is a demand and supply issue or the oil price surge is a result of speculation. You guys need to do your work if you wish to join this debate. For me, I will not be surprised to see the volatility in the energy sector. There are a lot of speculative activities.

So, you can guess who are the victims of rising oil price. UPS lowered its Q2 earnings guidance. UAUA laid off 15% of its pilot and reduce its fleet by 100 planes. DOW plans to increase prices by as much as 25% in July to combat rising energy costs.

On the economic front, May personal income and spending data showed some decidedly good economic news, indicating the fiscal stimulus is having a beneficial impact. Real PCE -- which accounts for 71% of GDP -- rose 0.4% in May, and April was revised upward to a 0.2% gain. Real PCE is on track for a 2.5% annual growth rate in the second quarter, and indicates second quarter real GDP will be up close to a 2% rate -- well ahead of Wall Street's expected gain of 0.5%. So, who said the US economy is in recession. The data did not support this claim.

May durable orders were flat, matching expectations, while orders excluding transportation fell by a less-than-expected amount. The data will not alter economic perceptions of a moderately growing economy.

The decline in new and existing home sales is leveling off after the steep fall in 2007 and early 2008. May new home sales fell 2.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, which follows the upwardly revised 4.8% gain in April. The results are better than the expected drop of 2.7%. Existing home sales rose 2% month-over-month.

The rate of home price declines is also slowing. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index showed that home prices in 20 major metro areas fell 1.6% compared to last month -- the smallest drop since September.

To be honest, this is a very difficult period to trade. Are you chasing the energy sector or staying on the sidelines? In any case, trade with money you can afford to lose and it is perfectly fine if there is no trade. I do expect the market to be rebound next week because it has been in oversold condition. But will this be short-lived? Again, I don't know.

So, good luck with your trades in Q3. Best wishes!
A Retest Of The March Double Bottom Low Is Likely - Option Traders - Stay Short.

Posted by Pete Stolcers on June 27

Yesterday’s reaction to the FOMC’s decision was nasty. Since its peak in May, the market has broken through key support levels at SPY 138 and 132. We can now see that the rally that started in March was nothing more than a bounce. On a five-year chart, a head and shoulders formation is clearly visible. We have broken through the five-year up trend line and we have broken through the neck-line of the head and shoulders formation. Technically, the market is very weak and my bias has turned to bearish.

Inflation is running rampant around the world and today we learn that Japan’s core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 1.5% in May. China and India are running at a 9% annual inflation rate. As prices rise, central banks around the world are tightening credit.

The Fed realizes that global rates are on the rise and they know that they will have to follow suit if they don’t want the dollar to get crushed. They also realize that another round of mortgage resets is hitting homeowners right now. Higher rates would cause even more foreclosures and waiting another two months will help borrowers. The bond market has already factored in a quarter-point rate hike in September and another quarter point in October. Next week, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter-point.

Overseas markets were hit hard overnight in sympathy with our decline. Every week I review long-term charts of foreign markets and with very few exceptions, all of them look weak. The global expansion that was supposed to carry us out of a recession looks like it is in jeopardy.

European financial firm Fortis announced that they will take a $13 billion write-down. This morning, Merrill Lynch and AIG announced that they will each take another $5 billion in write-downs. The bad news keeps coming and the depth of this financial crisis is still not known. We do know that it can spread far beyond subprime mortgages if the job situation changes.

Next week’s holiday-shortened trading will focus on the Unemployment Report. Last month, the unemployment rate had its biggest spike in 22 years. Initial jobless claims have been creeping up each week and the four-week average now stands at 378,000. Continuing claims also continue to rise and they are at 3.14 million.

Next week’s economic releases include Chicago PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, the ADP employment index, factory orders, ISM services and of course the Unemployment Report. After this week’s decline, traders will error on the side of caution and they will sell ahead of Thursday’s number.

Second quarter earnings season is around the corner and I believe it will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Inflation is biting into profit margins and producers have not been able to pass rising costs on to customers. Global expansion had been fueling earnings and it will show signs of deterioration. This quarter’s numbers might be in line, but the guidance will be very cautious.

The market is in an oversold state and we are likely to see a short covering bounce. I would be surprised to see the SPY above 138 the rest of the summer. The SPY 133 level represents resistance and the market might not even have enough strength to push through it.

For today, I believe the bulls will step back and wait. There is no reason for them to stick their neck out ahead of a weekend, especially when we are heading into a holiday next week. The selling pressure could continue on Monday and the retest of the double bottom is likely. That is only 25 S&P 500 futures points away. A bounce is likely to come from that level.

I am bearish for at least the next three months and I will be shorting any rally. During the next few days, I will be taking profits on my short positions. Retail, restaurant, gaming, hotel, airline, defense and consumer goods are all favorite areas to short. I would stay away from the financials for the time being. They are very oversold and I believe a short covering rally could materialize.
ups dah mulai naik lagi tuh emoticon-Wowcantik
tapi hati2, keliatannya bakal turun lagi. liat harga minyak aja, kalau naik lagi ups bakal anjlok lagi keliatannya. karena kompenen biaya utama mereka bensin.

EA games

keliatannya boleh ambil bull EA.
game strategy baru nya spore, game paling ditunggu penggemar game strategy online sudah bisa di coba di http://www.spore.com/trial.
ada kemungkinan penjualannya bisa menyaingi the SIMS Life.

lumayan tadi malam sudah naik $1.

kondisi nya masih bagus, ini lagi summer dan liburan, diharapkan penjualan games meningkat.
grafik chart nya juga mendukung.
hati2 buat yg pegang posisi, level resisten nya keliatannya di $46. kalau break up mungkin bisa naik terus. emoticon-Big Grin
Tanggal 4 juli ... kayaknya market libur.. mudah mudahan ada kejutan yang menghasilkan duit...
iya betul, independent day nya amrik.
harga minyak naik juga konon karena banyak permintaan menjelang july 4th. stock minya jadinya berkurang.
mudah2an setelah itu kembali turun. emoticon-Wink
back from holiday................

bertarung lg ...
emoticon-Sundul Up....
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welcome back bro beka emoticon-Smilie
tau aja balik liburannya pas market lagi ijo.emoticon-Wowcantik
Post ini telah dihapus oleh
^^^ nih orang nyampah dimana mana....bikin thread ampe 10an isinya sama..
qiqiqiqi...
betul banget noh...

koq sepi

Bro,
harga minyak sudah turun banyak nih, koq masih sepi aja forum nya.
review dong pergerakan market kedepannya gimana nih.

mudah2an ga ada yg lagi pegang google, serem, semalam turun usd52
ambil Call...kali aja rebound lagi... kan lumayan..
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buset boss, kalau ambil call pakai analisis kali aja bisa berabe modal investasi kita. emoticon-Amazed
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Bro Yuri, kalau di IB bisa day trading nda dengan setor sgitu?

Thanks
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Halo Oogle,

US$ 10,000 tetap kena patern day trade, > US$ 25,000 bisa bebas day trade ..
Hope can help, regards Yuri
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