Credit photo: Hamed Malekpour (INKL)

"Not by the Tweets of Some Idiot"  : Iran's Own Military Defies Its Foreign Minister Over Strait of Hormuz.
On 17 April 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that 'the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.' The announcement sent oil prices tumbling more than 10 per cent and prompted US President Donald Trump to post a celebratory message on Truth Social, calling it 'a great and brilliant day for the world.'

What followed, however, exposed a fracture at the heart of Iran's power structure. Within hours of Araghchi's declaration, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy broadcast a starkly different message — directly on international maritime Channel 16, the emergency frequency monitored by all vessels at sea. According to maritime intelligence monitor The Hormuz Letter, the IRGC Navy publicly called Araghchi an 'idiot,' stating the strait 'is still closed' and that it 'will open by the order of our leader Imam Khamenei, not by the tweets of some idiot.' The broadcast further warned that 'all vessels that have a connection with our enemies will be targeted if they try to pass.'

sumber: InternationalBusinessTimes.UK

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Secara kontemplasi, dapat dianalisa bahwa pengambilan keputusan politik di dalam negeri Iran sekarang sudah muali menunjukkan berbagai WARNA berbeda. Yang masing masing mulai mengusung kepentingan "golongannya". Terlepas dari keinginan sebagian rakyat Iran yang ditindas karena ingin ganti rejim.
Hampir satu paralel dengan kejadian NASAKOM Indo jaman Pak Karno. Semua golongan memakai muara yang sama yaitu Sukarno.

1. Salah satu penyebab kenapa perundingan dengan US/Israel selalu kandas, utamanya adalah ketidak puasan golongan tertentu antara Militer IRGC dengan Rejim Politik Iran, yang bermura sama pada "pemimpin Khamenei".
Artinya pihak yang dianggap mampu mewakili Iran, ternyata tidak kompeten mengimplementasikan perundingan kepada badan badan internal Iran sendiri. Sekan ada tarik menarik dengan figur 
2. Didalam IRGC pun, sudah ada fragmentasi antara IRGC Army dengan IRGC Navy. Demikian pula, dalam rejim politiknya terfragmentasi dalam beberapa mainstream.

What would be the window of opportunities to US, and How?
1. US will widen them rift, by zigzaging policies.
2. In the same time will eneble Military preassures, by more on gripping Iranian ports, especially Iranian Oil ports to drag down their monies wallet.
3. Cripple or deniying Iranian help from abroad, by superimposing Maritime Blockade.
4. Lastly, BOOTS ON THE GROUND perhaps like rich targets as: Sirri Island, Abu Musa, Tunb, Larak. And ultimately Kharg Island and Qeshm Island. 
Well, all of which are depend to a "Green Light" from Washington.
Either by Marine envelopment (31st MEU) or Vertical envelopment (82nd Airborne).
Surely it'll be messy, but we gotta do it right to finish the job done.

TheTick
(pengamat abal abal kelas teri).