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https://www.kaskus.co.id/thread/526900f6feca173c07000003/russias-middle-eastern-frontier-analisa-strategi-nikolai-malishevski
Russia's Middle Eastern Frontier analisa strategi Nikolai Malishevski
Quote:

Russia's Middle Eastern Frontier

By: Nikolai MALISHEVSKI on: 23.10.2013 [06:51 ] (302 reads)
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Nikolai Malishevski - Russia's Middle Eastern Frontier - Strategic Culture Fondation Online Journal

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Russia's Middle Eastern Frontier

The U.S., overloaded with colossal internal problems, is once again planning to get out of trouble by beating Russia in the global competition on the oil and gas fronts. On the oil front with the help of Saudi Arabia, and on the gas front (and to some extent on the potassium front) with the help of Qatar. In this economic war, Syria is one of Russia’s most significant frontiers.

Saudi Arabia is America's tool for controlling oil supplies and putting pressure on Iran and Russia by threatening to displace their oil in all the biggest importers on the planet. This is done using a scheme worked out back in the 1980s, when by agreement with Washington the Saudis dropped the price of oil to 10 dollars a barrel, reducing the main revenue item of the USSR's budget to nothing and hastening the end of the Soviet superpower. While Washington lacks such a mechanism with regard to natural gas, it realizes quite well that Russia, which possesses approximately one third of world gas reserves, can become a world leader in this sphere. And these days the stability of a country's geopolitical positions is more dependent on control of gas fields and transport routes than oil fields and transport routes.

Since the beginning of the Arab spring and the aggression against Syria, Qatar has begun to play a key role in America's anti-Russian plans, as it has: a) colossal gas reserves, in which respect this small country has already surpassed Gazprom, b) a huge fleet of 54 special Q-max and Q-flex ships for transporting liquefied gas, and c) the largest gas field in the world, the Northern field, for which the moratorium on development ends in 2014. Most likely, that is when the deciding battle for Syria will take place and the all-out «gas» attack on Russia will begin…

The monarchies of the Persian Gulf, which along with the United States support «democratic changes» in several Middle Eastern countries, themselves remain dictatorial regimes. Thus the «Arab spring» boomerang they have thrown will inevitably return to them. The only way for them to divert the energy of the revolutionary explosion away from themselves is to try to redirect this energy outward. The Saudis' and Qataris' efforts are directed to the northeast, and their targets are Syria and Iran, and in the later stage, the Caucasus and the Volga region.

Qatar is not only a tool for controlling gas supplies and squeezing Russia out of the European market. It is expected that the loss of the gas market in the European Union would be catastrophic for Russia's budget. Strictly speaking, Qatar as a political entity is a British creation, buttressed by the U.S. army. At the same time it is a branch of Western transnational corporations. Like Saudi Arabia, Qatar has long been a center of international terrorism, sending fighters to Libya, Syria, Egypt, Algeria and the Caucasus. At one time the Qataris, who have an army of 12,000, sent 5,000 special operations troops into the deciding battle for the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

Ideological support for Qatar's policy is provided by the television channel Al Jazeera and several influential Islamist figures like Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the chairman of the World Council of Islamic Theologians, who took an active anti-Russian position back in the years of the first Chechen campaign. The Qataris openly welcome Chechen terrorist leaders like Zelmikhan Yandarbiev and finance Syrian «rebels», to whom Qatari aviation sends a huge amount of weapons via Turkey and Jordan. However, the main direction of attack for Qatar and its Western patrons is connected not with military actions, but with economic ones.

Qatar is already waging a price war against Russia. The Qataris are working in Belarus under Gazprom's nose, regasification terminals are under construction in the south and north of Europe, and the possibility of building terminals in England, the Netherlands, Turkey, Greece, etc. is being probed. The Qataris would think nothing of openly beating up a Russian diplomat at the ambassadorial level. The Emir of Qatar, sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, whose main office is located in London, has already eliminated or neutralized all Russian oil and gas projects in Qatar: 5 large billion-dollar projects like Yamal-LNG and 18 projects estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars. The same thing was done with gold mining projects.

Qatar owns 30% of the Rockefellers' Exxon Mobil Corporation, an energy monster which has become the main beneficiary of the occupation of Iraq and is one of the main lobbyists for the war against Syria. It is to this corporation that the puppet regime in Baghdad gave a 50-year monopoly on the development of Iraq's oil reserves after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. As the main consumer of Russian gas is Europe, Exxon is trying to implement an alternative Qatar - Europe gas pipeline project. The White House also has an interest in this project.

If the American-Qatari alliance is able to shut out Gazprom, it would lead to a drop in hydrocarbon prices with all the ensuing consequences. It only remains to destroy Syria and all Middle Eastern infrastructure related to Russian energy projects, first of all pipeline infrastructure, as was done after post-Nasser Egypt was swung about from Moscow toward Washington in the 1970s; this was accompanied by the destruction of infrastructure the Egyptians had built on Moscow's money and the transformation of Egypt from a leader of the Arab world to a third-class state.

They want to destroy Syria in order to:

1) Take control not only of the recently discovered Syrian gas fields between Damascus and Homs, but of the entire territory of the country, which is seen as an important Middle Eastern geoeconomic crossroads and an alternative to the sea route for transporting hydrocarbons. The oil and gas monarchies of the Gulf are critically dependent on the transport route through the Strait of Hormuz. If that route were to be blocked for several months, an economic crisis would be inevitable for the Saudis, the Qataris and the Europeans.

2) Replace gas supplies to Europe from the north (from Russia) with supplies from the south (from U.S. vassals on the Gulf), as after the fall of Asad, even if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will be possible to lay a gas pipeline through the territory of occupied Syria, allowing Qatar to displace Gazprom.


For now the Americans and Saudis are hastening to deprive Syria of chemical weapons and develop Libyan oil. The Qataris, who have already quietly drawn away 6% of the European Union market (as a result of which Gazprom's share has decreased by 2%), are moving in on Libya's gas sphere and setting their sights on yet another gas state, Algeria, which for now retains its sovereignty in the gas extraction field (Qatar is already sending weapons and jihadist thugs to Algeria at full tilt).

The approaching year 2014 will be decisive in the fate of Syria as Russia's Middle Eastern frontier. It is next year that a) it will become impossible to further postpone the resolution of internal problems in the U.S., b) chemical weapons in Syria will be destroyed, c) the moratorium on the development of the largest gas field in the world, the Northern field on the border between Qatar and Iran, will end, and d) Qatar will finish building its fleet, create infrastructure for delivering LNG (a port on the coast, a series of super gas tankers, and regasification terminals in the EU), and gain a stake in European gas transport systems.

The main task for Russia's foreign policy in the Middle East in 2014 will be not to allow the destruction of Syria or the «democratization» of Algeria in a similar scenario.



Mungkin tulisan ini ngak ada kaitannya dengan militer, tapi lebih membahas ke analisa Strategi secara menyeluruh (politik, ekonomi, dll) yang menjadi latar dari konflik militer di Suriah. Si penulis adalah orang Russia. Jadi analisa ini ditulis dari sudut pandang Russia.

Inti dari keterlibatan AS dan Rusia di Suriah dikarenakan pipa gas dan minyak yang berasal dari Saudi dan Qatar yang hendak ditujukan ke Eropa. Sehingga negara-negara Eropa bisa terbebas dari ketergantungan mereka pada Rusia dalam hal gas dan minyak bumi. Dan ternyata untuk mencapai tujuannya, mereka membuat skenario untuk menggulingkan Assad, Agar Damaskus jatuh ke tangan pemerintah pro barat sehingga proyek pipa ke Eropa bisa mulus. Sedangkan Rusia ikut campur dalam masalah Suriah, karena dia tidak ingin pipa gas dan minyak dari Saudi dan Qatar bisa terhubung ke Eropa.

Ekonomikah alasan utamanya? YA. Tapi bukan hanya masalah ekonomi semata. Aku pikir pipa minyak dan gas ini adalah jawaban negara-negara Barat untuk mengatasi masalah ketergantungan negara2 Eropa kepada Rusia. Dan implikasi ketergantungan ini membuat barat kelimpungan saat Rusia melakukan intervensi militer ke Georgia dulu. Karena pada saat itu, Rusia menutup keran pipa minyak dari Rusia menuju ke Eropa untuk menekan mereka agar mereka tidak ikut campur dalam intervensi militer Rusia di Georgia.

Maaf ini thread pertama saya. Semoga saja ngak melanggar ROE. Sebenarnya saya lebih suka menyelipkan berita ini ke thread yang sudah ada. tapi karena korelasinya dengan thread-thread sebelumnya minim maka terpaksa saya memberanikah diri untuk melewati garis aman.
baru tau ternyata sovyet jatuh gara2 harga minyak emoticon-Matabelo thx for the thread emoticon-Angkat Beer

tapi kenapa harus lewat syria, kenapa ga lewat jordan kemudian israel?

mungkin demi total domination. setelah syria lalu iran, lalu kaukasus? emoticon-Malu
sepertinya day by day, mamarica's grip on mideast mulai loyoemoticon-Big Grin

arab saudi sampai menolak duduk di DK PBB sebagai bentuk protes ke mamarica, bukan ke PBBnya sendiri

turki milih senjata uwak mao over mamarica dan nato

mesir, keknya mulai berpaling dari mamarica juga

israel mulai kehilangan kepercayaan ke mamarica over iran nuke issue

btw, mamarica dengan shale gasnya bukan saja sudah mulai mengurangi impor migas dari mideast, tapi juga punya potensi besar menjadi saingan pengekspor migas buat saudi dan papa bear, sebuah mimpi buruk buat keduanya yg mengandalkan ekspor migas buat ekonominya. Kelihatannya harga migas dunia beberapa tahun ke depan bisa anjlok seandainya mamarica mulai ekspor shale gasnya, apalagi di tengah lesunya ekonomi dunia. Belum lagi kalo iran bisa capai deal dengan mamarica, dan embargo ekspor minyaknya dicabut. Menarik menunggu reaksi papa bear dan saudi/opec melihat mata pencahariannya terancamemoticon-Big Grin
jalur pipa gas yang ditakuti Russia kan yang dari central Asia, kok belok ke Syria? (dan roadmap soal ini ada di kantor GAZPROM emoticon-Hammer bicara soal company intelligence...)

coba buka buka arsip kertas dan poto poto dulu ah emoticon-linux2

Russia itu udah siap mulai jaman kapan oi soal Gas emoticon-Ngakak itu dari Afrika Utara aja mereka udah punya konsesi, Gazprom buka gas field baru di Siberia, termasuk mau cari resource baru di North Sea dan Asia emoticon-Embarrassment bukan hanya satu negara yang pintar di dunia ini
Quote:Dan ternyata untuk mencapai tujuannya, mereka membuat skenario untuk menggulingkan Assad, Agar Damaskus jatuh ke tangan pemerintah pro barat sehingga proyek pipa ke Eropa bisa mulus.

- Ga ada sedikitpun si penulis bilang gitu, ngebantuin (pemberontak) iya..

- Coba lihat peta, ada beberapa jalur altenatif dari Qatar ke Eropa.

- Qatar bantuin (dulunya) pemberontak di Libya ga banyak yang turun langsung, cuma SF nya aja (yang jelas ga nyampe 5000)

sedikit tebak tebakan

Quote:Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH is a Vienna-registered company for the Nabucco pipeline project. The managing director of the company is Reinhardt Mitschek.[1]

Shareholders[edit]
The shareholders of the company are:
OMV (Austria)
MOL (Hungary)
Transgaz (Romania)
Bulgargaz (Bulgaria)
BOTAŞ (Turkey)
RWE (Germany)
Each of the shareholders hold 16.67% of the shares.[2]

French company Gaz de France was also interested to get a stake in the pipeline, but was rejected by Turkey.[3][4] The Polish gas company PGNiG plans to join the project.[5] In the future, the consortium intends to also include the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR); however, SOCAR has identified a number of problems with its participation.[6][7] Kazakhstan has also indicated its readiness to join the project


meski ada supplier dan buyer jelas, proyek gas pipelines ini banyak masalah, mulai dari Gaz de France yang ternyata musang berbulu domba dan Georgia yang siap wilayahnya dikasih pipa (asal wani piro) tapi ga bisa jamin keamanan jalur pipa emoticon-Hammer jalur Nabucco keselatan masu disatuin itu ke Iraq tapi masih belum dapat clearance dari current Iraqi Gov.

Syrianya lewat mana? dan berapa signifikan sih gas Syria dibanding Kazakhstan
Quote:Original Posted By kampaa


- Ga ada sedikitpun si penulis bilang gitu, ngebantuin (pemberontak) iya..

- Coba lihat peta, ada beberapa jalur altenatif dari Qatar ke Eropa.

- Qatar bantuin (dulunya) pemberontak di Libya ga banyak yang turun langsung, cuma SF nya aja (yang jelas ga nyampe 5000)



qatar mah sekarang udah mulai diasingin di jazirah arabemoticon-Ngakak (S)

negara kecil tapi lagaknya besar, main di sana sini, kagak sungkem ama big bro saudiemoticon-Big Grin dulu dukung mursid di mesir, sekarang ganti jadi junta militer, si qatar buru2 nawarin duit minta damai ke junta militer mesir, malah dicuekinemoticon-Ngakakemoticon-Ngakak
Quote:Original Posted By kampaa


- Ga ada sedikitpun si penulis bilang gitu, ngebantuin (pemberontak) iya..

- Coba lihat peta, ada beberapa jalur altenatif dari Qatar ke Eropa.

- Qatar bantuin (dulunya) pemberontak di Libya ga banyak yang turun langsung, cuma SF nya aja (yang jelas ga nyampe 5000)



Itu asumsiku sih. Kalo salah berarti harus nimba ilmu dan info lagi. Trims koreksinya.

Quote:Original Posted By reinhard5490
jalur pipa gas yang ditakuti Russia kan yang dari central Asia, kok belok ke Syria? (dan roadmap soal ini ada di kantor GAZPROM emoticon-Hammer bicara soal company intelligence...)

coba buka buka arsip kertas dan poto poto dulu ah emoticon-linux2

Russia itu udah siap mulai jaman kapan oi soal Gas emoticon-Ngakak itu dari Afrika Utara aja mereka udah punya konsesi, Gazprom buka gas field baru di Siberia, termasuk mau cari resource baru di North Sea dan Asia emoticon-Embarrassment bukan hanya satu negara yang pintar di dunia ini


Coba gan buka-buka arsipnya lagi dan share di sini buat pembelajaran kita semua. Analisa di atas kan ditulis oleh orang Rusia, jadi wajar kalo isi tulisannya lebih pro ke Rusia.
Quote:Original Posted By Yuwen

Coba gan buka-buka arsipnya lagi dan share di sini buat pembelajaran kita semua. Analisa di atas kan ditulis oleh orang Rusia, jadi wajar kalo isi tulisannya lebih pro ke Rusia.


di post sebelum kamu sudah saya tulis jalur yang direncanakan - jalur NABUCCO dan masalahnya (dan mengapa korelasi dengan Syria jadi dipertanyakan) penulis Rusia isinya lebih pro Rusia? hmm saya malah melihat tendensi dia yang melemahkan peran dan kekuatan Gazprom dan terlalu mengangkat posisi Qatar di tulisan dia; seolah Gazprom benar benar kesulitan menghadapi Qatar - The truth is not
Quote:Original Posted By reinhard5490


di post sebelum kamu sudah saya tulis jalur yang direncanakan - jalur NABUCCO dan masalahnya (dan mengapa korelasi dengan Syria jadi dipertanyakan) penulis Rusia isinya lebih pro Rusia? hmm saya malah melihat tendensi dia yang melemahkan peran dan kekuatan Gazprom dan terlalu mengangkat posisi Qatar di tulisan dia; seolah Gazprom benar benar kesulitan menghadapi Qatar - The truth is not


Decoy? Bawa bawa gazprom sama qatar cuma buat narik simpati kayanya. Gazprom gak sebego itu ah..
ada yang bisa ngasi gambar jalur2x pipa rusia gak..??
penasaran nih emoticon-Malu (S)

gw numpang satu dah
Spoiler for :
Quote:Original Posted By Pitung.Kw


qatar mah sekarang udah mulai diasingin di jazirah arabemoticon-Ngakak (S)

negara kecil tapi lagaknya besar, main di sana sini, kagak sungkem ama big bro saudiemoticon-Big Grin dulu dukung mursid di mesir, sekarang ganti jadi junta militer, si qatar buru2 nawarin duit minta damai ke junta militer mesir, malah dicuekinemoticon-Ngakakemoticon-Ngakak


Kecil-kecil duitnya banyak lho emoticon-Big Grin Apalagi jaman sekarang, mendukung sekelompok milisi udah cukup untuk menggoyang pemerintah (macam Libya.. walaupun masih di bantu sama NATO dkk)

Iya, heran juga kenapa pisah jalan sama Saudi di Mesir..

Quote:Original Posted By Yuwen


Itu asumsiku sih. Kalo salah berarti harus nimba ilmu dan info lagi. Trims koreksinya.


Belum tentu salah juga sih, bisa jadi memang awalnya mereka "berkonspirasi", tapi ya.. AFAIK semua masih sebatas asumsi.

Cuma ga mau jadi thread penggiringan opini emoticon-shakehand:
Quote:Original Posted By Pitung.Kw
sepertinya day by day, mamarica's grip on mideast mulai loyoemoticon-Big Grin

arab saudi sampai menolak duduk di DK PBB sebagai bentuk protes ke mamarica, bukan ke PBBnya sendiri

turki milih senjata uwak mao over mamarica dan nato

mesir, keknya mulai berpaling dari mamarica juga

israel mulai kehilangan kepercayaan ke mamarica over iran nuke issue

btw, mamarica dengan shale gasnya bukan saja sudah mulai mengurangi impor migas dari mideast, tapi juga punya potensi besar menjadi saingan pengekspor migas buat saudi dan papa bear, sebuah mimpi buruk buat keduanya yg mengandalkan ekspor migas buat ekonominya. Kelihatannya harga migas dunia beberapa tahun ke depan bisa anjlok seandainya mamarica mulai ekspor shale gasnya, apalagi di tengah lesunya ekonomi dunia. Belum lagi kalo iran bisa capai deal dengan mamarica, dan embargo ekspor minyaknya dicabut. Menarik menunggu reaksi papa bear dan saudi/opec melihat mata pencahariannya terancamemoticon-Big Grin


Tung, kalo Yaman arah perpolitikan nya lebih condong ke mana yah?
Mamarika kah? emoticon-Bingung (S)
Quote:Original Posted By vortexc
ada yang bisa ngasi gambar jalur2x pipa rusia gak..??
penasaran nih emoticon-Malu (S)

gw numpang satu dah
Spoiler for :


Bagaimana dengan jalur pipa dari Saudi dan Qatar?
Quote:Original Posted By Daniel707


Tung, kalo Yaman arah perpolitikan nya lebih condong ke mana yah?
Mamarika kah? emoticon-Bingung (S)


yaman sama kek somalia, sudan, ethiopia (sekarang mesir jg?) kali ya emoticon-Stick Out Tongue negara di rute kargo laut merah, menghubungkan samudra hindia dan laut tengah. dibikin perang sodara dan dihancurin ekonominya emoticon-Ngacir saudi agak susah soalnya kiblat sunni mungkin, jadi mending dijadiin partner aja deh, ntar jg kering ndiri sumurnya emoticon-Ngacir
qatar, saudi bukannya bisa lewat mesir, libya, tunisia, italia ??? ane emoticon-Thinking
Quote:Original Posted By Daniel707


Tung, kalo Yaman arah perpolitikan nya lebih condong ke mana yah?
Mamarika kah? emoticon-Bingung (S)


amerika dengan terpaksa. tapi kalo grass root nya cenderung ke rusia.
Ini peta jalur pipa (simplified pipe map)

Spoiler for Map:


Dan ini ada ulasan lain yang menarik dari analis India bernama Brig Amar Cheema

Quote:
When combat soldiers are faced with a chemical attack, the military practice to exhale polluted air before donning a protective mask is by shouting ‘gas-gas-gas.’ By repeating the ‘G’ word many times over, it appears that USA and her allies have taken the first step: further action(s) against Assad’s Syria – justified or otherwise, are expected.

The Syria-Iran-Iraq Gas Pipeline, dubbed as the ‘Islamic Pipeline,’ is a $10 Billion project which was agreed upon by the three countries in July 2011.

While the western narrative for initiating actions against Syria is being justified as retribution for chemical attacks perpetuated by a diabolic President Assad, there is more happening ‘in’ and ‘around’ Syria than what meets the eye : control of natural gas reserves, its trade, distribution and the strategic advantages it bestows are alternative and cogent reasons meriting western military intervention? History has proved that the lure of energy resources is powerful and oil and gas bequeathed to the Islamic world has turned out more as a curse, rather than a boon for its people; Iraq, Libya and the division of Sudan are recent examples of the plunder of Middle Eastern nationhood. This energy rich region has been repeatedly crushed and mutilated with utter disregard for socio-ethnic concerns for gaining control over the oil ‘wells of power.’ The anticipated attack on Syria by an incensed ‘coalition of the willing’ portends to be the latest in this game of hardball played for gaining geo-political strategic advantage(s).

Since it is intended to provide an alternative narrative for the fast developing war-like situation, a brief background is required to be provided. Geographically located at the junction of the fuel starved European Union and energy rich Iraq and Iran, Syria, by virtue of her location alone has the potential to play a pivotal role in conduiting gas supplies to Europe. In addition, Syria now has recently struck gas off her coast, the closest to Europe from where she could now supply gas directly. Collectively, these advantages make Syria’s role pivotal and dominant in the future. At the same time, the spectre of direct supply supplemented by the gas pipeline from Iran through Syria would trip the dream of Qatar to supply gas to Europe directly. USA, a strategic partner of Qatar and Saudi Arabia and being the largest beneficiary of their oil revenues, seems willing to back her partners to knock out Syria and Iran from the energy equation. By doing so, she would concurrently stymie Russian and Chinese attempts to alter the status quo favouring the USA, western powers and the nations of the Sunni Muslim world as also favour herself and Turkey by ensuring alternative Qatari gas for their joint gas pipeline project.

Essentially an Arab nation with 74 percent of its population being Sunni Muslims, the territory of Syria, which included what is today’s Lebanon, was mandated to France as spoils after the First World War under the Treaty of Sevres; in turn this was the outcome of a secret agreement (Sykes-Picot) brokered between Britain and France. This not only dampened Arab democratic aspirations, despite the elections of May 1919, this also flew in the face of the American led Crane Commission which was required to recommend the political future in accordance with the aspirations of the Arab people: both were thrown out of the window by Britain and France. Cutting the story of the Syrian struggle to the barest, France went on to occupy Syria in July 1920, though it took them another three years to establish full control over Syria. Later, Lebanon was carved out of Syria to provide a safe haven to Christians; the only state in the middle east where they are in majority over the Muslims.

As the world waits with bated breath for American Tomahawks to fly across the Syrian bows, it would be prudent to surmise that these are not merely being fired to punish the use of chemical weapons, but more importantly to serve a warning to Assad to scuttle his ambitious plans to supply piped gas to Europe directly.

The story of independent Syria since 1946 remained turbulent as it soon entered the Arab war against the newly created state of Israel in 1948, losing a part of the strategic Golan Heights in the bargain. Internal rumblings resulted in a coup-de-tat which ushered in military rule, which was replaced by another and the third in 1951. Even a return of a national (civil) government in 1956 could not bring stability; to illustrate, till 1956, Syria already had twenty new cabinets and four separate constitutions. In order to overcome her security concerns after the Suez Canal crisis of 1967, Syria signed a pact with the Soviet Union, allowing the chill of the Cold war to permeate the region. This naturally alarmed the Turks (Turkey has the Syrian city of Iskendron under its occupation), and in turn, pushed the Syrians further in the embrace of the Soviet Union. The important point being made in this story of unstable nationhood is that ‘external’ factors have been many and they have repeatedly altered the course of Syrian history.

A brief interlude (1958-1961) of merger with Egypt followed taking the form of the short lived United Arab Republic. The experiment failed after power was retaken by the military in Damascus, this time under the cloak of the Baath Party: the party that had also taken over in neighbouring Iraq. At that stage there were talks of a unification of Syria, Egypt and Iraq as a solitary Arab nation, which eventually floundered after the party lost control over Baghdad in 1963. Within three years there was yet another coup ushering in the Second Baath government. The 1967 Six Day War with Israel that followed resulted in weakening of the Syrian government, though this did not deter them to send in forces for a misadventure against Jordan in support of the Palestine guerrillas after the dramatic events of the Black September. After receiving another bloody nose, it was the turn of the Minister of Defence, Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president belonging to the dominant Alawites (Alawis are a prominent religious group of Shia Muslims, forming twelve percent of the population of Syria who live in the Levant which is located at the cross roads of Western Asia, Eastern Mediterranean and North East Africa) to take over and consolidate the nation under the National Progressive Front, which undertook a ‘Correctionist Movement’ over the next thirty years. It was the lingering effect of his ‘reformist’ movement that transfer of power to the son following his death in June 2000 was smooth as the Syrian Parliament relaxed the minimum legal age from 40 to 34 to facilitate taking over by President Bashar al-Assad. The reign of Assad, an army physician by training, has been relatively less turbulent, despite the US led invasion of Iraq and the ongoing civil war. He has cultivated amicable relations with Iran and despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, has maintained close links with Moscow.

Coming to what has led to war clouds rumbling over Syria once again – it’s all about gas and more importantly, the economics connected to it. Environment friendly and low cost natural gas has emerged as the energy of choice of the future and is set to replace coal and nuclear power generation, with the European Union being the largest market. This shift has coincided with major gas finds in Qatar, Iran, Syria and Israel, and it is this happenstance in energy geo-politics that as a blog put it as forming the string that ‘binds Israel, Turkey and Qatar in the form of an unholy alliance on one side, and Assad’s Syria, Iran, Russia and China on the other.’

…in strategic terms, the Qatar-Turkey pipeline is exceedingly important for Europe and USA as Europe can be freed from the Russian gas stranglehold, a grim reality of today.

As the world waits with bated breath for American Tomahawks to fly across the Syrian bows, it would be prudent to surmise that these are not merely being fired to punish the use of chemical weapons (rumoured to be a false flag operation), but more importantly to serve a warning to Assad to scuttle his ambitious plans to supply piped gas to Europe directly. It needs to be highlighted that the war to destabilise President Assad has been going for over two years and has taken the form of a Sunni-US sponsored civil war. It is the lack of success on this front that USA is being forced to go in for the kill. Legitimacy for undertaking the operation is being brokered to undertake punitive action(s) under an UN mandate for purported crimes committed against humanity and the chemical attack is being played up. It would be recalled that hysteria for war on Syria had also been built up in 2012; this got scuttled due to the actions taken by Russia and China working in tandem; this also led to the resignation of the then UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan.

The Syria-Iran-Iraq Gas Pipeline, dubbed as the ‘Islamic Pipeline,’ is a $10 Billion project which was agreed upon by the three countries in July 2011. This proposes to pipe gas from the Pars field located in the Persian Gulf (single largest in the world) to Lebanon’s coast from where it would be supplied to the European markets by the year 2018. Since the Iranian Pars gas field extends beyond the Persian Gulf, Qatar, the second claimant of the world’s second largest field also plans to supply gas directly to Europe but through an alternate pipeline through Turkey traversing Iraq, but bypassing both Iran and Syria. In Turkey this would be linked with the US backed Nabucco pipeline, carrying gas supplies from the Central Asian Republics, adding to the value, since it would have a diversified source. Both proposals are thus in direct competition with each other whose leverage makes them strategic since their impact would be far reaching and would increase with time. It is important to highlight that in strategic terms, the Qatar-Turkey pipeline is exceedingly important for Europe and USA as Europe can be freed from the Russian gas stranglehold, a grim reality of today. On the other hand, the pipeline from Iran and Syria would remain somewhat under Russian influence as would be the supply of gas through the Nabucco line from the Central Asian Republics.

USA which is not only a strategic partner of Qatar, has compulsions since her strategically important bases of CENTCOM are located in Qatar…

Adding to the complexity are issues related to the supply of gas from Egypt and Jordan. President Assad has preferred his tie up with Iran over that with Egypt and Jordan who planned to supply gas directly to Homs in Syria for Europe and Turkey through the Arab Gas Pipeline running directly from Aqaba via Amman in Jordan. This line already supplies gas to Lebanon and Israel through outlets in Sidon and Haifa, though the link to Homs in Syria is still to be developed. By proffering his preference over Egypt and Jordan, both Sunni Muslim states, President Assad has placed his hopes with Shia Iran and therefore this competition is projected as a Sunni-Shia Muslim internecine conflict and this is the colour of the civil war raging in Syria to displace President Assad with a candidate of choice from the Muslim Brotherhood, preferred by the Sunni world. It is pertinent to highlight that amongst others, the fight against Assad (regime change being the unstated aim) is being waged by Al Qaida jihadis along with numerous fighters sponsored by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the western world, including Israel. Principles, if there are any which are followed in the real world of energy geo-politics and geo-strategy already stand compromised.

At this stage there is the requirement to inject the role of the other affected party who is in direct competition with Syria – Israel. In addition to the gas that Syria is to receive from Iran for supply to Europe, her own (recently discovered, but under played) Qara gas field close to her border with Lebanon and near the Russian naval port of Tartus on the Mediterranean coast is believed to be equal if not greater than the gas reserves of Qatar; bestowing a great advantage to Syria. Around the same time, Israel which was till recently an energy deficient nation hit pay dirt by the discovery of a ‘giant’ gas field in the offshore Levant basin. Both Syria and Israel are therefore now in direct competition with each other for supply of gas to Europe, which in practical terms would be cheaper than the gas sourced from either Iran or Qatar due to the low transportation costs. A map is highlighting these links and issues.

When viewed in perspective, Israel and Syria will both have the economic edge over Iran and Qatar due to reduced distances, whereas in strategic terms, the enhanced role that Syria could play directly, combined with the leverage of Iran and Russia at the expense of Qatar, Turkey and Israel becomes the compelling and time critical reason for the west and the Sunni world to nip the threat before it can develop. USA which is not only a strategic partner of Qatar, has compulsions since her strategically important bases of CENTCOM are located in Qatar; these include the Air Expeditionary Wings of the US Air Force as well that of the Royal Air Force. Naturally, she would wish that the Iran-Syria initiative is eliminated from the equation. Since the thrust of the western initiative is also directed against Iran, this also reinforces Sunni domination over the Islamic world by the House of Saud over the Shiites of Iran. While the benefits for Israel and Turkey are obvious, this also dilutes Russian influence over Syria, while it provides an alternative source of gas for the US Nabucco pipeline. At the same time this restricts Chinese penetration in Iran’s energy infrastructure. Thus while the immediate case to act against Syria is loudly made out as retribution for Assad’s purported use of chemical weapons against the freedom loving people of the sponsored ‘Free Syrian Army,’ the game plan is larger with major strategic ramifications – behind the planned attacks, it’s all about gas.

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Reserved for opinion (aku butuh pelajari dulu biar ngak kelihatan bodohku, tapi kalian silahkan kasih opini dan pendapat)
Quote:Original Posted By morokembang


amerika dengan terpaksa. tapi kalo grass root nya cenderung ke rusia.


makasih namnah pengetahuanemoticon-Cendol (S)
Quote:Original Posted By santaigirl2.0


yaman sama kek somalia, sudan, ethiopia (sekarang mesir jg?) kali ya emoticon-Stick Out Tongue negara di rute kargo laut merah, menghubungkan samudra hindia dan laut tengah. dibikin perang sodara dan dihancurin ekonominya emoticon-Ngacir saudi agak susah soalnya kiblat sunni mungkin, jadi mending dijadiin partner aja deh, ntar jg kering ndiri sumurnya emoticon-Ngacir


Ngg..maksud ai arah perpolitikan luar negeri nya.
Belom separah somalia lah yaman, mungkin agak mirip mesir. emoticon-Big Grin