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https://www.kaskus.co.id/thread/5252449df8ca17e50e000000/eurasian-union-eau-uni-sovyet-baru-abad-21
Eurasian Union (EAU), Uni Sovyet Baru Abad 21
Russia's Putin battles for his Eurasian dream
Eurasian Union (EAU), Uni Sovyet Baru Abad 21
Hillary Clinton once described Putin's Eurasian Union initiative as 'a move to re-Sovietise the region' [AP]
In 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin lamented: "The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century."

Exactly 10 years later, Putin plans to bring post-Soviet countries into a Russia-led Eurasian Union (EAU). In November 2011, the presidents of Kazakhstan and Belarus signed an agreement with Russia to launch the Eurasian Union and make it fully operational by 2015.

Membership in the EAU entails uniting economies, legal systems, and customs services - and military coordination with Russia. In order for the ambitious plan to work, Russia needs to lure strategically important ex-Soviet states such as Ukraine into the game.

However, Europe's second-largest country by area has already expressed its desire to join the European Union as an associate member instead, and is expected to sign an association agreement with the EU during a summit in Vilnius in November, within its Eastern Partnership programme.

The Kremlin has repeatedly warned Ukraine against the move. "We would somehow have to stand by our market, introduce protectionist measures. We are saying this openly in advance," Putin told a gathering of Russian experts and journalists recently.

Kremlin economic adviser Sergei Glazyev said Russia was "preparing to introduce tougher customs administration in case Ukraine makes the suicidal move of signing the EU association agreement".

Meanwhile, another post-Soviet country - Armenia - made a surprise move by declaring its readiness to join the Russia-led Customs Union - seen as a precursor to the Eurasian Union. This conflicts with the country's ambitions of becoming an associate member of the EU.

Bullying?


At the United Nations General Assembly on September 25, the president of Armenia's neighbour Georgia took a different tack, arguing post-Soviet countries that aspire to join the EU were being bullied by Russia.

"Armenia has been cornered, and forced to sign customs union which is not in this nation's interest or in the interest of our [South Caucasian] region. Moldova is being blockaded, Ukraine is under attack, Azerbaijan faces extraordinary pressure, and Georgia is occupied. Why? Because an old empire is trying to reclaim its bygone borders," said Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili.

However, the Eurasian Development Bank survey - published on September 24 - claims that 50 percent of Ukrainians, 67 percent of Armenians, and 59 percent of Georgians support the idea of joining the already existing Customs Union.

The Bank - founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006 - also sees Azerbaijan as a potential member of the Customs Union, but acknowledges only 37 percent of the country's population supports the idea.

"Putin's plan to integrate post-Soviet countries is a trap. If either Baku or Tbilisi joins the Customs Union and Eurasian Union, it would signal the end of European access to Central Asia," Zaur Shiriyev, a research fellow in the Foreign Policy Analysis Department of the Center for Strategic Studies in Azerbaijan, told Al Jazeera.

The World Bank seems to think so too. Its report, published in February 2013, said "the [Customs Union] creates an opportunity for Russia to expand its exports and its presence in Central Asia at the expense of exports from other countries, such as the European Union and China".

Shiriyev suggested the only way for eastern European countries to avoid more pressure from Russia is to increase integration with the European Union and strengthen relations with the United States.

Who will benefit?

According to the World Bank analysis, evidence suggests that Russia has been the main beneficiary in the short term of the Customs Union (launched on January 1, 2010 with Kazakhstan and Belarus), and this is also expected to be the case once the organisation grows into a larger Eurasian Union.

However, there are some benefits to be gained by Central Asian member states in the medium to long term, as Russia is their most significant trading partner. Border controls within the union are removed for goods passing through, and all member states impose the same tariff on imports from outside the union.


The economic benefits have lured at least one more Central Asian post-Soviet country - Kyrgyzstan - to the union. It's not a member state yet, but it has committed to doing so.

"By joining the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union, [the] Kyrgyz Republic would get access to a very large common market, which would attract investments and new technologies," said Talant Sultanov, director at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Kyrgyzstan.

According to Sultanov, the negotiations between Russia and Kyrgyzstan regarding its integration in the Customs Union and wider Eurasian Union "are going in a very constructive manner", unlike the situation with Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries. Because Kyrgyzstan's trade with the EU and US is already limited, Sultanov does not think its move will have much of an impact on its trade relations with the West.

At what cost?

Yet though membership in the union could bring economic benefits, critics worry it could carry a high price, degrading the countries' sovereignty and independence from Russia, with its imperial past and regionwide reputation as an aggressor.

The Russian army currently occupies 20 percent of Georgian territory, and is accused of fuelling ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"Unlike most nations, the Russian Federation has no interest in having stable states around it. Neighbouring countries in constant turmoil is what the Kremlin is seeking," said Saakashvili at the UN General Assembly.

Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once described Putin's effort of launching the Eurasion Union as "a move to re-Sovietise the region".

Like the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire before it, the Eurasian Union would be run from Moscow.
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Uni Soviet model baruemoticon-Kiss
jualan ekonomi tetapi tetap ada perjanjian militernyaemoticon-Kiss
pecahan soviet yang ga mau gabung bakal dibully habis2an sama papa bearemoticon-Kiss

dapat dari forum sebelah karena artikel tsb bagus untuk dibahas terutama bagian perubahan kekuatan militer pecahan soviet di asia tengah dan eropa timuremoticon-Malu (S)
Sekarang memang harus pakai intimidasi dagang dan sedikit tekanan dengan bullying model Osetia War untuk membentuk persepsi Russia baru yang strong di kawasan Eurasia. Putin memang strongman paling berpengaruh di dunia saat ini, dan Russia memang membutuhkan strongman model diktator seperti dia untuk membangun negeri itu. Democracy never found her way to Kremlin
Itu Georgia sudah tahu di sebelahnya ada tetangga besar kok selalu mancing-mancing konflik sih. kenapa gak berusaha jadi tetangga baik saja emoticon-Big Grin
Mirip kayak tetangga utaranya sulawesi, nantangin Naga dengan modal Hamilton class cutter. emoticon-Cape d... (S)
Eurasian Union (EAU), Uni Sovyet Baru Abad 21
masalah buat loe hill? bukanya lagi tutup pemerintahan loe. thanks to tovarish obama

Eurasian Union (EAU), Uni Sovyet Baru Abad 21
we are not so happy family
Quote:Original Posted By madokafc
Sekarang memang harus pakai intimidasi dagang dan sedikit tekanan dengan bullying model Osetia War untuk membentuk persepsi Russia baru yang strong di kawasan Eurasia. Putin memang strongman paling berpengaruh di dunia saat ini, dan Russia memang membutuhkan strongman model diktator seperti dia untuk membangun negeri itu. Democracy never found her way to Kremlin

emoticon-Ngakak
beberapa tahun lalu ukraina dikerjai rusia dengan di stop gasnya
kemarain juga Georgia dikerjai dengan pendudukan oleh militer rusia
Quote:Original Posted By kensama
Itu Georgia sudah tahu di sebelahnya ada tetangga besar kok selalu mancing-mancing konflik sih. kenapa gak berusaha jadi tetangga baik saja emoticon-Big Grin
Mirip kayak tetangga utaranya sulawesi, nantangin Naga dengan modal Hamilton class cutter. emoticon-Cape d... (S)

udah dikerjai habis2an tuch dengan diduduki wilayahnya oleh rusiaemoticon-Kiss
Quote:Original Posted By Rasuna
Eurasian Union (EAU), Uni Sovyet Baru Abad 21
masalah buat loe hill? bukanya lagi tutup pemerintahan loe. thanks to tovarish obama

Eurasian Union (EAU), Uni Sovyet Baru Abad 21
we are not so happy family

emoticon-Ngakak
Russian stroong,,
Demograzy cocoknya mamarika dan akhirnya dpt getahnya,, amrik shutdown,,
Andai (ini andai aja gan) klw pemimpin indonesia model putin, apakah militer kita juga akan tambah kuat??
(ini cuma "seandainya")
Dengan bersatu tentu lebih kuat ..... contoh saja saat krisi ekonomi eropa dimana negara2 uni eropa yang kesusahan di bantu oleh negara eropa lain, atau di afrika dimana negara afrika yang sedang memiliki konflik bersenjata dibantu keamanannya oleh pasukan uni afrika ... yang berontak itu adalah kepala negara yang ingin menjadi raja2 kecil dan menikmati kekuasaannya.

Bandingkan dengan negara2 arab dan islam yang dahulu dibawah kekuasaan utsmani masih memiliki gigi saat melawan rusia atau invasi portugis dan spanyol, bandingkan dengan kondisi sekarang dimana negara arab dan islam itu seperti pecundang dan pelacur jalanan yang bisa dijual beli dan di utak atik seperti kasus di irak, afghanistan dan palestina.
Spoiler for :


IMO bisa-bisa Weapon blackmarket sama drug traffic bakal merajalela kalo ini terjadi emoticon-Hammer
Quote:Original Posted By madokafc
Sekarang memang harus pakai intimidasi dagang dan sedikit tekanan dengan bullying model Osetia War untuk membentuk persepsi Russia baru yang strong di kawasan Eurasia. Putin memang strongman paling berpengaruh di dunia saat ini, dan Russia memang membutuhkan strongman model diktator seperti dia untuk membangun negeri itu. Democracy never found her way to Kremlin


setelah putin, lalu gimana?emoticon-Big Grin

ane kurang suka sistem yg terpusat ke individu, setelah individunya tak ada, lalu? chaos? kolaps? harus ada sistem yg bisa menjamin transisi yg smooth.

anyway, fokus putin ke pertarungannya dengan barat/eu sudah membuat uwak mao bebas masuk ke central asia, putin/rusia tak banyak bisa berbuat apa2, karena selain kalah tebal dompetnya, juga sepertinya putin ingin dukungan uwak mao buat mempertahankan dominasi politiknya di central asia. So far win win deal for both.
Quote:Original Posted By Pitung.Kw


setelah putin, lalu gimana?emoticon-Big Grin

ane kurang suka sistem yg terpusat ke individu, setelah individunya tak ada, lalu? chaos? kolaps? harus ada sistem yg bisa menjamin transisi yg smooth.

anyway, fokus putin ke pertarungannya dengan barat/eu sudah membuat uwak mao bebas masuk ke central asia, putin/rusia tak banyak bisa berbuat apa2, karena selain kalah tebal dompetnya, juga sepertinya putin ingin dukungan uwak mao buat mempertahankan dominasi politiknya di central asia. So far win win deal for both.


rusia itu bermasalah denngan ekonominya.. yg dikuasai oleh mafia. putin mah kebanyakan nostalgia ama USSR... padahal dengan modal SDA rusia bisa jdi negara kaya..di eropa

Quote:Original Posted By chibiyabi


rusia itu bermasalah denngan ekonominya.. yg dikuasai oleh mafia. putin mah kebanyakan nostalgia ama USSR... padahal dengan modal SDA rusia bisa jdi negara kaya..di eropa



justru mafia2 rusia di pelihara kremlin untuk melaksanakan kepentingannya.
Quote:Original Posted By Pitung.Kw


setelah putin, lalu gimana?emoticon-Big Grin

ane kurang suka sistem yg terpusat ke individu, setelah individunya tak ada, lalu? chaos? kolaps? harus ada sistem yg bisa menjamin transisi yg smooth.

anyway, fokus putin ke pertarungannya dengan barat/eu sudah membuat uwak mao bebas masuk ke central asia, putin/rusia tak banyak bisa berbuat apa2, karena selain kalah tebal dompetnya, juga sepertinya putin ingin dukungan uwak mao buat mempertahankan dominasi politiknya di central asia. So far win win deal for both.

Quote:Original Posted By chibiyabi


rusia itu bermasalah denngan ekonominya.. yg dikuasai oleh mafia. putin mah kebanyakan nostalgia ama USSR... padahal dengan modal SDA rusia bisa jdi negara kaya..di eropa


Quote:Original Posted By keeflay


justru mafia2 rusia di pelihara kremlin untuk melaksanakan kepentingannya.

Oligarki rusia dan para mafia yang gamau kerjasama dengan kremlin pasti dihajar kremlin makanya kepentingan kremlin aman dengan memelihara merekaemoticon-Malu (S)