Yaakov Lappin, Tel Aviv - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
19 September 2014



The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are restructuring their defences along the Lebanese border after recent intelligence evaluations indicated that the militant Shia group Hizbullah is planning to send hundreds of well-armed fighters into northern Israel in any future conflict.

The central pillar of Hizbullah's strategy still rests on firing large quantities of rockets and missiles into Israel. The group is believed by Israel to have more than 100,000 projectiles in its arsenal and is able to get new weapons custom-designed and mass-produced in arms factories in Syria or Iran, according to a senior Israeli intelligence officer.

However, having gained considerable experience in co-ordinating ground assaults during its intervention in Syria, Hizbullah has added offensive cross-border capabilities to its war plans, according to senior Israeli military officials.

The group has sent large numbers of fighters into Syria to support the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. These fighters have been integrated into the chain of command of the Syrian military and loyalist militias and have been involved in capturing and holding rebel-held territory. This has allowed Hizbullah to gain valuable new combat experience from an attacking perspective.

As a result the group has gained confidence in its ability to co-ordinate the various components needed to launch large raids into Israel. These components include command and control, intelligence, co-ordination of firepower, and moving large numbers of fighters in an organised fashion.

Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah has in recent months threatened to "capture" Israel's northern Galilee region in a future war. Members of the Israeli defence community interpret this threat as a reference to plans to seize small areas in northern Israel for a few hours before the IDF regains control.

Since May the IDF's Northern Command has operated an upgraded multi-sensory border security control centre called Mars. The system makes use of cameras, ground surveillance radars and other sensors that remain classified to track movements near the border. Controllers monitor sensory inputs around the clock and despatch forces to investigate suspicious activity.

Mars' computer systems prioritise incidents on the basis of threat urgency. Inputs come from both Combat Intelligence Collection units, which transmit high volumes of visual intelligence, and from border sensors.

Mars will also begin receiving data this year from Granite vehicles, which serve Combat Intelligence Collection units by swiftly deploying to potential troublespots and raising a robotic arm out of their roof mounting a variety of electro-optical sensors for day and night surveillance.

The changes come as Hizbullah abandons a low-profile presence along the Israeli border. In recent months it has sent uniformed, openly armed fighters to the area and planted flags on the frontier, according to the Israeli intelligence officer. He said he believed Hizbullah has also created a naval commando unit. The IDF is not aware of any cross-border tunnels leading from Lebanon into Israel, but such tunnels may well exist, the officer said.

The officer said that, in the event of a war, his preferred strategy would be to swiftly mobilise IDF brigades for an aggressive ground offensive that would move into Lebanon within hours.

"[The conflict] could be very long," the source said. "Part of this depends on how quickly we launch a ground offensive. The faster we launch an aggressive ground offensive, the more dramatic the effect it will have."

He warned that any conflict with Hizbullah would involve many casualties, including non-combatants, as the group has bases in the villages in southern Lebanon.

He also said that a conflict with Hizbullah was unlikely in the near term but could begin inadvertently and suddenly with a series of tit-for-tat border actions that spin out of control. Potential triggers could include Hizbullah attacks on Israelis overseas or an Israeli airstrike on weapon convoys heading from Syria to Lebanon.

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