PLA could defeat JSDF in any potential conflict: Japanese media

An article in Japanese magazine Pursuit, claims that Japan would be unable to defend itself against China should war break out, according to the news website of China's nationalistic state-run newspaper Global Times.

The article claims that the old stereotypes of the People's Libration Army as ill-equipped, and the Japan Self-Defense Force as well-equipped and well-trained no longer hold water. Military experts cited by the magazine do not believe that the JSDF would be able to defeat the PLA if any potential conflict were to continue long term.

Jun Kitamura, formerly a strategic analyst for the US marines, said the first consideration when it comes to war between China and Japan is ballistic missiles and long distance cruise missiles with regular warheads, and that China can hit Japan without mobilizing any troops.

The article indicated that the cost of long distance cruise missiles is cheap enough for China to bombard Japan. The PLA is currently equipped with 600-700 CJ-10 land attack cruise missiles and 100 DF-21 medium-range ballistic missiles. There is also speculation that the PLA will obtain KH-32 supersonic cruise missiles in the future.

The JSDF's anti-missile system is the Standard 3 anti-ballistic missile on the Aegis combat system that intercepts the attacking missile in the air. If the Aegis combat system fails, MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missiles will intercept the attacking missile. The attacking cruise missile can also be intercepted by air fighters or corvettes, but this requires twenty-four hour patrols.

It is very possible that the PLA will launch missile strikes to cause panic among the Japanese people. The prime minister's official residence, TV stations, the Ministry of Defense, and nuclear plants could all be targets, and Tokyo would likely be the first to be attacked.

With the JSDF having to deploy a lot of its troops on anti-missile missions, defenses on mainland Japan would inevitably suffer.

The PLA has landing troops similar to the US marines, and it also owns landing platforms, second in number only to the US. In addition to 90 landing platforms carrying three landing troops of 16,000 marines, the PLA can send thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks.

Through the purchase of amphibious transport docks and amphibious light tanks from Ukraine, the landing capability of the PLA is increasing.

The PLA has amphibious light tanks that the JSDF lacks, as well as ZTD-05 amphibious assault vehicles armed with 105 mm bullets that are capable of puncturing the JSDF Type 90 or Type 10 tank. The PLA can also employ long distance cruise missiles and send the Sukhoi Su-27 to counter the JSDF's F-15s. The Su-27 can also protect amphibious transport docks.

Given the number of troops that could potentially be deployed to Japan, with 1.6 million PLA soldiers against 140,000 JSDF soldiers, Japan is in a very difficult situation, said the article.

The only hope for Japan is to seal off China's ports as early as possible if war breaks out. The JSDF's overwhelming advantage lies in its anti-submarine and minesweeping abilities which can not only prevent the PLA from landing in Japan but are also capable of striking heavily at China, which relies heavily on exports.

China also has nuclear bombs, and Japan may well cede, rather than risk China using it. The newspaper stated that given that Japan is prevented from developing nuclear weapons, its best course of action is to go through political and diplomatic channels to negotiate with China.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-s...20140626000017