Original Posted By SelengkapnyaIsrael Welcomes Sunni-Shia Conflict

A report forecasting Israel’s strategic future looks positively at Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East though it fears instability along Israeli borders.

Israeli Major General Amos Yadlin concludes the “Strategic Survey for Israel 2013-2014” by stating:

“In 2013, Israel’s national security balance sheet was largely positive. In contrast, in the second half of 2014, complex and problematic processes underway in the region – including the efforts to contend with the Iranian nuclear program, the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the upheaval in the Arab world, and stature of the United States in the Middle East – can be expected to pose significant challenges to Israel’s security.”

The survey, published by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, lists the positive components of Israel’s national security balance sheet, including the Syrian army’s preoccupation with civil war. As a consequence, the army has been “drastically weakened. It has lost many soldiers and a great deal of equipment, and its chemical weapons are in the process of being dismantled.”

The survey notes Hezbollah’s preoccupation with the fighting in Syria, pinpointing the fact that there has been no response to the attacks carried out by Israel against high-quality weapons en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon from Syria.

Another positive, according to the survey, is the “significant” damage to Iran’s economy from sanctions and “poor economic management” under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Iran’s economic situation has thus influenced domestic policies related to progress in producing a nuclear weapon.

The survey also optimistically addresses the toppling of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt through a military coup, which put the Egyptian military “back in the driver’s seat.”

Yadlin calls attention to a broad confluence of interests between Israel and Arab states that belong to the “moderate Sunni world,” especially the Gulf states, based on a similar perception between Israel and these states regarding developments in Iran, Syria, and Egypt.

The survey addresses several other issues, such as the nearS E N S O Rplete tranquility Israel has enjoyed on its border, its ability to maintain peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt despite the regional turmoil, and its effective deterrence against neighboring countries and against what the author refers to as “terrorist” organizations that control Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

As for the negative processes that upset the balance, as Yadlin puts it, the survey argues that, on the political and security levels, the Jewish state is challenged by four key issues: the Iranian nuclear program, the Israeli-Palestinian political process, US policy in the Middle East, and the consequences of weakened central governments in Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon on Israel’s national security.

Lurking Risks for Israel

The survey warns against the inherent dangers of an agreement between Iran and world powers, which could could give Iran the ability to develop a nuclear weapon.

Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian political process, the survey outlines the political and security repercussions if negotiations over a final settlement are unsuccessful. Failure of negotiations might lead to a diplomatic and legal campaign against Israel in the international arena, to strengthening the economic boycott, and – although less likely – to an escalation in violent confrontations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip against Hamas.

The survey argues that US policy in the Middle East may represent a challenge for Israel. Specifically, the report refers to a change in the nature of US politics, represented by an increased interest in Asia and a weakened influence in the Middle East. The latter appeared in the US decision to not use military force against Syria and instead focus on diplomacy.

The survey points to an additional threat: the potential impact that the upheaval in the Arab world might have on countries neighboring Israel, namely Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. The author notes that instability in these countries, especially the weakening of central authority, will have repercussions that threaten Israeli national security.

Strategic Opportunities

The fundamental question at the heart of the survey is the nature of the alternative that will prevail in the Arab world amid the ongoing upheaval, especially after the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The survey offers several scenarios, ranging from the return of military dictatorships – as is the case in Egypt – to weakened regimes and the strengthening of extremist Islamist forces such as al-Qaeda and jihadi Salafism. The report points out that events in Syria combine the two latter possibilities, which will surely have an impact on the regional balance of power.

The report argues that these developments entail both risks and opportunities for Israel. Weak governments in nearby countries “increase the likelihood that armed non-state groups will penetrate into the border areas and make the problem of regular security more acute.”

The survey emphasizes that “an increase in terrorist activity on Israel’s borders by terrorist groups … has thus far not materialized into a strategic threat.”

Yet, the report also argues that “the opportunities presented by the upheavals in the Arab world outweigh the risks they incur.” Foremost among these opportunities is the worsening relations between the Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia and the Shia axis led by Iran. “The weakening of the Shia axis, primarily as a result of the civil war in Syria, has broadened Israel’s room to maneuver in the Middle East and created an opportunity to expand its cooperation with the Sunni axis countries.”

Original Posted By 032700►Oded Yinon's Plan number 22th:
The Western front, which on the surface appears more problematic, is in fact less complicated than the Eastern front, in which most of the events that make the headlines have been taking place recently. Lebanon’s total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel’s primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi’ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today.

Number 23th:
Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate for Israel’s targets. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria. In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us. Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in the short run and will shorten the way to the more important aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon. In Iraq, a division into provinces along ethnic/religious lines as in Syria during Ottoman times is possible. So, three (or more) states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi’ite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization

Original Posted By rizaraki►Laporan dari mantan Menlu Perancis Roland Dumas :

The Syria War was Planned Two years before “The Arab Spring”

In an interview with the French TV station LCP, former French minister for Foreign Affairs Roland Dumas said:


Dumas went on give the audience a quick lesson on the real reason for the war that has now claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people.


Dumas is a retired French foreign minister who is obliged to use discretion when revealing secrets which could affect French foreign policy. That is why he made the statement ‘I am French, that doesn’t interest me’. He could not reveal France’s role in the British plan as he would be exposing himself to prosecution for revealing state secrets.

There have been many disinformation agents in the British and French press, many of them well known ‘leftist’ war correspondents and commentators, who have tried topretend that Israel secretly supports Assad. Those who make such arguments are either stupid, ignorantor deliberate disinformation agents of NATO and Israel.

Israel’s support for Al Qaeda militantsin Syria has even been admitted by the mainstream press. For example, Germany’s Die Welt newspaper published a report on June 12thon Israel’s medical treatment of the Al Qaeda fighters.

Israel planned this war of annihilation years ago in accordance with the Yinon Plan, which advocates balkanization of all states that pose a threat to Israel. The Zionist entity is using Britain and France to goad the reluctant Obama administration into sending more American troops to their death in Syria on behalf of Tel Aviv.

Of all the aggressor states against Syria, Israel has been the quietest from the start. That is because Laurent Fabius, Francois Holland, William Hague and David Cameron are doing their bidding by attempting to drag Israel’s American Leviathan into another ruinous war so that Israel can get control of the Middle East’s energy reserves, eventually replacing the United States as the ruling state in the world. It has also been necessary for Tel Aviv to remainsilent so as not to expose their role inthe ‘revolutions’, given the fact that the Jihadist fanatics don’t realize they are fighting for Israel.

Sumber : http://topinfopost.com/2013/06/18/th...he-arab-spring

jadi memang jelas bahwa konflik suriah ini sengaja direncanakan oleh Israel, untuk menghancurkan musuh2 israel.
melemahkan kekuatan islam, dan mengadu domba musuh2 israel.
Israel bermain secara halus di suriah, sayang memang para mujahidin yang polos dimanfaatin oleh israel demi mewujudkan terbentuknya Israel Raya.