U.S. commander says Iran sanctions not working

Severe sanctions against Iran are not working, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East says.
Gen. James Mattis of Central Command made the statement at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday.
"In your professional opinion, are the current diplomatic and economic efforts to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons capability - are they working?" Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican, asked.
"No, sir," Mattis replied.
Mattis later told Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, that Iran's "nuclear industry continues."
"I think we have to continue sanctions, but have other options ready," Mattis replied.
Mattis said Iran might be able to be swayed by "a purely cost-benefit ratio."
"Between economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and encouragement of behavior that does not cost them such a degree of political support that they end up losing power, there may yet be a way to bring them to their senses," Mattis said.
Asked by Graham if the only other option is bringing them "to their knees," Mattis responded, "yes, sir."
"The means, there are a number of means to do that, perhaps even short of open conflict. But certainly that's one of the options that I have to have prepared for the president," the Central Command chief said.
Secretary of State John Kerry told CNN's Jill Dougherty in an interview conducted in Doha, Qatar, that the United States was willing to sit down with Iran, but the country needs to prove it has only peaceful purposes for its nuclear program.
Over the weekend, Iran's ambassador to the United States told CNN's Fareed Zakaria that Iran was open to direct talks.
"I'm willing to do what the president instructs me to do, and the president calls that shot. But he has already made it crystal clear, going back several years, that the president is prepared to engage with Iran," Kerry said in his first interview with CNN since becoming secretary of state.

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/0...s-not-working/

No shift in Iran's nuclear behaviour, despite sanctions

US and European officials and analysts say Tehran is defying western pressure with a combination of clever tactics, repression and sheer stubbornness
Harsh economic sanctions have taken a serious toll on Iran's economy, but US and European officials acknowledge that the measures have not yet produced the kind of public unrest that could force Iranian leaders to change their nuclear policies.
Nine months after Iran was hit with the toughest restrictions in its history, the economy appears to have settled into a slow, downward glide, haemorrhaging jobs and hard currency but appearing to be in no immediate danger of collapse, western diplomats and analysts say. At the same time, the sanctions have failed to trigger significant protests or produce a single concession on Iran's nuclear programme. Though weakened, Iran has resisted western pressure by a combination of clever tactics, political repression and sheer stubbornness, analysts say.

The mixed results from sanctions complicate the west's bargaining position ahead of the next round of Iranian nuclear talks in early April. At the last round, in February, the US and five other world powers offered significant new concessions to Iran in exchange for cuts in its nuclear programme, but Iran so far has neither accepted the proposal nor offered concessions of its own. Iran's resistance will make it tougher for President Barack Obama – due to visit the region this week – to reassure Israeli and Arab allies.
The Iranian regime shows no sign of giving in. Last Thursday a powerful cleric taunted the US administration, vowing that economic pressure could never force Iran to give up its nuclear programme. "The Iranian nation is committed to resist arrogant powers, including the United States," said Ali Saeedi, the personal representative of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Obama administration officials insist that the full impact of sanctions is just beginning, and they say that Iran's economic pain will deepen in the coming months.
Still, US and European officials and diplomats acknowledge that they are waiting for clear signs that Khameini is willing to change course.
Marine General James Mattis, head of US Central Command, said Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme during the past year, despite diplomatic and economic pressure. The Islamic republic continues "enriching uranium beyond any plausible peaceful purpose" and is probably using negotiations to stall for time, he told the Senate armed services committee on 5 March. "I'm paid to take a rather dim view of the Iranians, frankly," he said.
While Iran has been under international sanctions since the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah, the restrictions imposed last summer were the most significant attempt to hit its oil sector and central bank. The results surprised even the strongest advocates of sanctions: exports of oil, Tehran's chief source of hard currency, fell to about 1m barrels a day from more than 2.4m barrels. At the same time, restrictions on Iran's main banking institutions crippled the country's ability to conduct business transactions abroad, with consequences that have rippled across the economy.
The impact has been hardest on the middle and working classes, which have seen savings evaporate and purchasing power dry up. Yet in recent months the country's fiscal crisis appears to have eased, and economists say neither complete collapse nor widespread rioting appears likely in the near term. "The Iranians look at sanctions in terms of popular unrest," said Ray Takeyh, a former Obama adviser on Iran. "If there are not people on the streets, sanctions aren't biting."
As it has in the past, Iran has proved adept at adjusting to economic restrictions imposed by the west. While oil sanctions have cut deeply into exports, Tehran has sold enough oil – within and outside the sanctions – to maintain basic services and preserve the affluent lifestyles of the ruling class and business elite, analysts say.
Last Thursday the administration said Iran got crucial help evading sanctions from a Greek shipping magnate who sold hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Iranian crude to unsuspecting customers. US officials said the Greek businessman, Dimitris Cambis, operated as Iran's secret oil broker, transferring millions of barrels of Iranian oil into his tankers to be sold to foreign buyers around the world. Cambis has denied participating in such a scheme. Iran has also found legal ways to soften the bite of sanctions, using currency reserves of euros in foreign banks and arranging complex financial deals that evade the US banking system.
After the most recent tightening of sanctions, Iran turned the restrictions partly to its advantage, congressional officials and Iran experts said. Under the rules, countries that import Iranian oil were allowed to continue the practice as long as they paid in local goods exported to Iran, rather than in the hard currency that Iran desperately needs. The idea was to help key allies, some of whom are dependent on Iranian oil, to continue receiving shipments of crude while boosting their own economies by forcing Iran to buy their products.
But Iran turned the policy to its benefit, using the imported goods – such as cars and air conditioners – to counteract high inflation at home, said a congressional staffer who tracks Iranian sanctions and requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence on Iran's economic policies. The imports help Iran conserve cash, which it uses to pay salaries and subsidise consumer prices to keep popular unrest at bay, the staffer said.
US officials, meanwhile, have struggled to ease concerns among Iran's oil customers, some of whom are growing increasingly frustrated with sanctions. Key allies, such as Japan and South Korea, have substantially curtailed imports of Iranian oil, but support for continued cutbacks has wavered in the absence of clear evidence that the sanctions are changing Iran's nuclear trajectory.
The United States has granted six-month exemptions to all 20 of Iran's major oil buyers in return for pledges to reduce the amount they purchase. Among the countries exempt from the sanctions are Iran's top oil customer, China, and No. 2, India.
While sharply down compared with 2011, Iranian oil exports increased slightly in February, according to new figures released by the International Energy Agency. The consortium of oil-importing nations said Iran's exports totaled 1.28m barrels a day in February, up from 1.13m barrels a day the month before.
A senior administration official said cheating by Iran could help explain the unexpected spike. "We look very carefully at the trends, but we would not want to read in too much to a single month," said the official, who requested anonymity in discussing US diplomatic strategy.
The official acknowledged that each ratcheting up of sanctions has spawned innovative attempts at evasion by Iran. But he insisted that loopholes are being closed as quickly as they are discovered. "We have responded aggressively to Iranian evasion attempts," said the official, requesting anonymity in discussing sensitive investigations, "both behind the scenes and by steadfastly exposing a host of front companies and subversive business practices."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...lear-programme